First, there’s a growing likelihood that we’re entering an El Niño event. This will likely begin around October 2026, which is the start of the 2026/2027 summer season. The South African Weather Service highlighted this in its seasonal climate watch report on May 1. Depending on the severity of the phenomenon, it will likely negatively affect agricultural activity in South Africa and across Southern Africa.
Second, South Africa has experienced favourable rainfall at the start of the 2026/2027 winter crop season. However, we may encounter below-normal rainfall later in the season, which could impact the production of wheat, barley, canola and oats this year.
In the coming weeks and months, we’ll need to closely monitor weather developments. The outlook is concerning across the board.
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